Employment Outlook: “Cautiously Optimistic”
U.S. companies plan to conservatively bolster staff during the final months of 2010, according to the more than 18,000 employers interviewed as part of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Year-Over-Year Increase: We continue to see positive momentum in U.S. hiring activity. 15% of employers anticipate an increase, 11% expect a decrease, 71% expect no change and 3% are undecided about their hiring intentions. With a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +5%, employers indicate a moderate increase in hiring expectations compared to one year ago, when the seasonally adjusted Outlook was -1%. The 5% Outlook is down just a bit from last quarter’s 6%. Some additional facts:
- A positive Outlook was reported for all four quarters of 2010, which followed three consecutive quarters with a negative Outlook in 2009.
- Employers across all industries reported a mostly positive Outlook in 2010, whereas the outlook in the majority of sectors was negative in 2009.
- Across all four geographic regions, all reported four quarters of positive hiring plans, while 2009 results were mostly negative.
Most Industries Positive: 11 of 13 industry sectors plan to add staff during the fourth quarter. Increased hiring is expected in Mining (+13%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+13%), Professional & Business Services (+10%), Leisure & Hospitality (+9%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+7%), Information (+7%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+6%), Financial Activities (+4%), Education & Health Services (+4%), Other Services (+3%) and Transportation & Utilities (+2%). The Outlook is negative only in Government (-6%) and Construction (-8%).
Regional Picture Improving: Compared to a year ago, employers in all four U.S. geographic regions anticipate hiring increases. Employers in the Northeast and South have the most upbeat hiring intentions, with a +6% Outlook., followed closely by the Midwest at +5%. The West continues to be the least upbeat, with only a +1% Outlook.
Global Picture Improving: Employers in 28 of 36 countries and territories expect to add to their workforces during Q4. Employment forecasts are strongest in China, Taiwan, India and Brazil. Hiring expectations are weakest in Greece, Italy, the Czech Republic, Spain and Ireland.
What Does This Mean? “Clearly there are signs of a softening labor market, but when we consider what we are hearing from our clients and by looking at our own business, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic,” said Jeffrey Joerres, Chairman and CEO of Manpower. “The hiring intentios for the fourth quarter are not enough to break through the labor market sound barrier that we’re all eagerly anticipating, as 71% of employers indicate no change in hiring.”
About the Survey: The quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease their employment levels in the upcoming quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope, longevity and area of focus.
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