We’ve seen some pretty exciting economic indicators this week. The ADP numbers get a lot of attention They were nearly three times higher than expected and many hoped the 297,000 additional private sector jobs signaled the end of something bad and the beginning of healthy, recovering job growth.
The big kahuna of indicators came out this morning — the unemployment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The good news: the unemployment rate dropeed to 9.4%. The not-so-good news: 103,000 jobs were added and that was far fewer than expected (particularly after the ADP report).
These seemingly contradictory indicators may be confusing. And people who are far smarter than I can do the intellectual analyzing. My take on it all:
- 9.4% is surely better than “a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.” After last month’s disappointing and discouraging rise in the unemployment rate, this month’s drop makes me feel better. But…
- …one month doesn’t make a trend. One great number (like ADP’s) won’t turn the economy around by itself and there are still 14.5 million unemployed.
So, although I’m getting sick and tired of saying I’m cautiously optimistic, that’s what I’ll continue to say. We’re moving in the right direction — let’s continue the trend and start moving a bit faster. Please!